RCEP brings new opportunities for regional economic development
Asia is the region with the most economic vitality and development potential in today's global production network, but factors such as global value chain restructuring, anti-globalization, and trade protectionism have adversely affected regional economic cooperation in Asia. The signing and entry into force of the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) will help Asian economies further improve the level of regional trade and investment liberalization, promote the formation of regional integrated markets, and provide a strong impetus for Asian regional economic cooperation in the post-epidemic era . RCEP member countries should make full use of institutional dividends, promote the deep integration of regional value chains, and make greater contributions to regional and global economic and trade development.
The adjustment process of the global value chain is accelerated
Since the 1980s, the wave of economic globalization has promoted the rapid growth of the world economy, and this situation has continued until the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008. Since then, the trend of reshaping the global value chain has begun to emerge. On the one hand, compared with before the financial crisis, the growth of global value chains has slowed down. The chain length of the global value chain has been shortened, especially the number of cross-border production of intermediate products in complex value chains has decreased, and some value chain links have returned to China. On the other hand, the regionalization trend of the global value chain is strengthening, which is manifested in the fact that the value chain is increasingly concentrated geographically in the final consumer market. The reason is that in addition to emerging technologies such as automation, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and 3D printing, which have reduced the importance of labor cost advantages, which in turn affect the speed and direction of some industrial transfers, China and other emerging economies in the global value chain The promotion of the division of labor status objectively shortens the value chain. It cannot be ignored that in recent years, domestic nationalism has been prevalent in some developed countries, and countries such as the United States and Europe have adopted discriminatory industrial policies or encouraged the return of industries on the grounds of security, which has seriously affected the layout of the global value chain based on market-oriented division of labor. At the same time, the decision-making of investment layout of multinational companies has also shifted from efficiency priority to efficiency and safety, and has to consider reducing supply chain risks by means of near-shoring outsourcing and decentralized layout. With the in-depth development of economic globalization, the vertical division of labor and cooperation model has begun to disintegrate, and the production and supply links in the value chain have undergone global adjustment and reshaping.
The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has profoundly affected the adjustment process of the global value chain. Due to repeated epidemics, a large number of laborers cannot be invested in the normal production activities of enterprises, the production scale of most industries has shrunk severely, and the supply of services has declined sharply, affecting the total social output of various countries. The global spread of the epidemic has weakened investors' confidence in the market, and the world economy is facing great uncertainty. Under the conditions of the division of labor in the global value chain, production stagnation in any country or region can cause a series of chain reactions, which will gradually spread to other countries and regions. The impact of the epidemic not only affects the production and supply side, but also affects the social demand side. The decline in the number of employed people and the shrinking of the production end have led to a decline in social income levels, and the demand for most industries and products has been impacted to varying degrees, which has had a major impact on the global value chain.
The blockade measures adopted by various countries in response to the epidemic have objectively hindered the flow of production factors such as goods, capital, technology, and personnel between regions, and have had a major impact on the global value chain. Affected by the epidemic, some countries and regions have broken industrial chains and supply chains, which not only pushed up production costs, but also greatly reduced production efficiency. How to avoid industrial chain and supply chain risks has become a major issue of concern to governments and enterprises. Some western developed countries have reassessed their global industrial chains on the grounds of security, and have begun to make corresponding adjustments to high-tech and other important industries, promoting the return of some industrial chains, and implementing a world economy characterized by "re-industrialization" rebalancing strategy.
Although economic globalization has been hindered, the pace of regional economic cooperation in Asia has not stopped. The RCEP, which came into effect in January 2022, has brought development opportunities to a world economy full of conflicts, problems and challenges. RCEP has further deepened the economic linkages between Asian economies, effectively boosted confidence in regional trade and investment in Asia, further strengthened the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain within the region, and provided a strong impetus for building a unified market within the region and achieving global prosperity and development .