At present, the global geopolitical situation is tense, the economic structure is evolving, and the industrial and supply chains are in disorder. Against such a background, it is necessary to fully understand the significant impact of the implementation of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) from a global perspective, grasp the general trend, eliminate interference, and work together to build the world's largest free trade area with a high level.
First, shared development is a prominent feature of RCEP. RCEP will not only promote the inclusive development of the region, but also stimulate global economic growth.
Development is the basis and premise for solving all problems. It is now and it will be in the future. RCEP puts the common development of the region as a priority, that is, it is development-oriented and unleashes the potential of economic cooperation in the region. At present, the global economic development may face severe challenges of the "lost decade". The World Bank predicts that from 2022 to 2030, the average global potential GDP growth rate will drop by about 1/3 compared with the first decade of this century; if countries adopt sustainable and growth-oriented policies, the potential GDP growth rate may Increased by 0.7 percentage points. Development or recession, cooperation or confrontation have become major choices facing the world today. RCEP, with developing countries as the main body, regards common development as its core interest. It clearly stated that "expand and deepen economic integration in the region, enhance economic growth and equitable economic development". The next 5-10 years will be a critical stage for the release of RCEP policy dividends. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that from 2022 to 2028, the GDP growth of the RCEP region will reach 13.3 trillion US dollars, which will be 17% higher than the combined GDP growth of the United States and the European Union; by 2040, East Asia’s GDP will The proportion of the world economy will increase from the current 30% to more than 50%. As a result, RCEP will become the world's largest economic growth center and an important force in the transformation of the world economic and trade order.
Development based on market and rules is sustainable development. It is now and it will be in the future. The "Indo-Pacific Economic framework" led by the United States attempts to build an exclusive supply chain system based on values in the Asia-Pacific. In essence, it is a zero-sum game driven by self-interest and maintaining its own hegemony at the expense of the interests of other countries. Some Indian media commented that "we should be wary of falling into the trap of 'Indo-Pacific Economic framework'". In stark contrast to this, the regional development of RCEP is based on the market and rules, which will bring about long-term sustainable growth in the region. "Establish clear and mutually beneficial rules to facilitate trade and investment" is the basic principle of RCEP. The development of RCEP will prove that regional economic cooperation based on market and rules has the strongest vitality and vitality.
Shared development is the pursuit and goal of free trade in the new era. It is now and it will be in the future. RCEP holds high the banner of shared development and will surely win the future of regional and global free trade. based on the basic principle of shared development, RCEP has set up special and differential treatment clauses to benefit members at different stages of development. For example, in 2022, Cambodia's exports to other RCEP member countries will increase by 7% year-on-year, driving Cambodia's economic growth by about two percentage points that year. Some analysts predict that by 2035, RCEP will increase the GDP growth rate of ASEAN by 4.47 percentage points; among them, the GDP growth rate of the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries will increase by more than 6 percentage points.
Second, high-level openness is an important goal of RCEP. Timely advancement of RCEP's high-level opening-up process will continuously improve the level of economic development in the region and promote the formation of a new pattern of world free trade development.
RCEP, which is characterized by shared development, is a free trade arrangement suitable for the region and an important carrier for continuously releasing regional development dividends. Objectively speaking, a rule system with slightly lower standards but inclusiveness is often more effective than a rule system with high standards but strong exclusion. The outstanding advantage of RCEP lies in the balance between high standards and applicability. based on the principle of inclusive and shared free trade and open flexibility, RCEP has great prospects. In the future, a higher level and shared development of RCEP will release greater economic growth effects and play an important role in promoting global governance reform.
Adapt to the general trend and promote the high-level opening process of RCEP based on the needs of regional development. First of all, realize the RCEP opening commitment as soon as possible. For example, jointly negotiate to shorten the transition period of open commitments such as zero tariffs and service trade negative list management; promote the transition of RCEP rules from "accumulation by origin" to "full accumulation"; Breakthrough; When conditions are ripe, economies from the Asia-Pacific region and even other regions will be included. Second, timely promote the integration of RCEP and CPTPP. It is necessary to create conditions to realize the integration of RCEP and CPTPP at certain policy and institutional levels on the basis of adhering to the principle of inclusiveness and sharing. As a result, the cost of using rules for dual-identity members is effectively reduced, and greater regional economic and trade benefits are generated. While expanding the open standards of RCEP’s traditional issues, it is necessary to use the RCEP consultation mechanism to actively carry out the docking and integration of “post-border” rules such as e-commerce, intellectual property protection, and competition policy with CPTPP. Finally, the integration of RCEP and CPTPP will create important conditions for promoting the establishment of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. The World Bank once estimated that by 2030, the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area will drive regional economic growth by 4.6%, which is more than four times the driving effect of CPTPP, and will drive world economic growth by 2%. The establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific has been the common expectation of all parties for many years. To achieve this important goal, we must strengthen confidence, eliminate interference, and strive to promote the integration of RCEP and CPTPP to create a new type of Asia-Pacific partnership that is open, inclusive, cooperative, and win-win, and lay an important foundation for the establishment of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area.
Major economies should play the role of facilitators in building a high-level RCEP. The GDP and added value of manufacturing in China, Japan, and South Korea account for more than 80% of RCEP. These three countries are also major export markets in the region and play a very important role in building a high-level RCEP. Moreover, under the framework of RCEP, the economic and trade cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea is promising. China, Japan and South Korea need to eliminate external interference and jointly implement the economic and technological cooperation commitments and market opening commitments under the RCEP framework. Not long ago, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "We are willing to meet all countries that are willing to cooperate with us for win-win results and promote the common prosperity and development of the world economy." The GDP of China and the United States accounts for 70% of the Asia-Pacific, and the trade volume accounts 50%, China and the United States should be the co-promoters for the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.
Third, ASEAN is the main force of RCEP. The construction of version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will pragmatically promote the high-level opening process of RCEP.
ASEAN and China are the vitality and focus of the RCEP region. ASEAN is the main body of RCEP and one of the markets with the greatest growth potential in the world. From 2014 to 2019, ASEAN's GDP grew at an average annual rate of about 5%, much higher than the world's 2.9% and the European Union's 2.1% growth rate over the same period; some analysts predict that by 2030, ASEAN will surpass Japan and become the world's fourth largest economy. China has always been an important promoter of RCEP. In 2022, China's imports and exports to other RCEP members will increase by 7.5% year-on-year; non-financial direct investment in other RCEP members will increase by 18.9% year-on-year, and direct investment absorption will increase by 23.1% year-on-year. Taking high-quality implementation of RCEP as the starting point, and working with other member states to build the world's largest high-level free trade area is one of China's major strategic tasks to promote high-level opening up.
Accelerating the construction of version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is the key to practically promoting the high-level opening process of RCEP. Building the 3.0 version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and promoting a higher level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation will fully release the potential of the two most dynamic markets in China and ASEAN. As a result, the high-level opening process of RCEP will be accelerated, and ASEAN's central position in the regional cooperation framework will be strengthened.
China is the largest market in ASEAN. The pattern of China's high-level opening up will form an important driving force for the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0. In the next 10-20 years, the structural transformation of China's consumption structure, industrial structure, urban-rural structure, technological structure, energy structure, trade structure and other fields will bring huge market space. Taking the consumption structure as an example, it is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of China's urban and rural residents' service consumption will reach about 50%, and by 2030 it is expected to reach more than 55%. The continuous release and open sharing of this potential will bring huge market space to promote economic growth in the RCEP region.
Promoting high-quality development through high-level opening-up is a major strategy for China's sustainable development. To this end, one of China's major tasks in building a new domestic and international dual cycle development pattern is to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN. For example, actively deploy cross-border economic cooperation zones and free economic zones along borders, and explore giving national treatment to other market players in the parks; and so on.
The construction of Hainan Free Trade Port is to make it an important hub for China-ASEAN comprehensive strategic cooperation: to form an important force for comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and ASEAN through the joint development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area; An important meeting point of the RCEP market; focusing on blue economy, green economy, and digital economy cooperation to build a demonstration area of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0; to accelerate the promotion of high-level opening stress tests to create an institutional opening pilot area.