2022 is the 20th anniversary of the construction of China's free trade area, and it is also the first year that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) came into effect. As the free trade agreement with the largest economic volume signed by China, RCEP is an important cornerstone for China to build a high-standard free trade area network facing the world. After its effective implementation, the level of regional trade liberalization and facilitation has been significantly improved. The field of agricultural trade has performed well. The agricultural product trade of most members in the region has grown significantly. The trade volume of agricultural products between China and the RCEP region has reached a record high. As the benefits of the agreement continue to be released, the positive effects of RCEP on the development of agricultural trade will continue to emerge.
From the perspective of the RCEP region as a whole, most members are interested in the rapid growth of global agricultural trade
(1) The trade volume of agricultural products of most members showed double-digit growth. After RCEP took effect, the trade of agricultural products of most members in the region has grown rapidly, among which Australia, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and China have achieved double-digit growth. From January to November, the trade volume of agricultural products of China, Thailand and South Korea increased by 10.2%, 11.6% and 16.7% respectively year-on-year; from January to October, the trade volume of agricultural products of Malaysia and Australia increased by 20.2% and 20.6% respectively.
(2) imports of agricultural products from members such as China, Japan, and South Korea have increased significantly. China, Japan, and South Korea are the main importers of agricultural products in the RCEP region, and the total imports of the three countries account for nearly 70% of the total imports of agricultural products in the region. From January to November, the imports of agricultural products from China, Japan and South Korea from the world increased by 7%, 10.3% and 19% respectively year-on-year. In addition, from January to October, the imports of agricultural products from Malaysia and Indonesia increased by 17.2% and 17.5% respectively.
(3) The export growth rate of agricultural products of members such as Australia and Malaysia exceeded 20%. The export growth rate of agricultural products of most member countries in the region has increased significantly, and China, Malaysia, and Australia have performed outstandingly. From January to November, the export value of China's agricultural products increased by 18.5% year-on-year, and the export growth rate was the highest in the past 10 years. From January to October, the export of agricultural products from Malaysia and Australia increased by 22.4% and 23.8% respectively.
From the perspective of China and regional members, the export potential to Japan has begun to show, and bilateral free trade partnerships with ASEAN and other countries have become closer
(1) The trade volume of agricultural products hit a historical record in the same period. From January to November, the trade volume of agricultural products between China and RCEP was 97.25 billion U.S. dollars, the highest in the same period in history, an increase of 15% year-on-year, 4.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of China's trade volume of agricultural products with the world over the same period, and compared with the same period of trade volume between China and RCEP. The growth rate was 9.8 percentage points higher. Among them, the import was 58.33 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.7%; the export was 38.92 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.5%, and the export growth rate was the highest in the same period in the past 10 years.
(2) The export of tax-reduced products to Japan grew rapidly. After RCEP achieved bilateral tariff concessions between China and Japan for the first time, the export potential of some tax-reduced products has initially emerged. From January to November, the trade volume of agricultural products between China and Japan was 11.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Among them, the export to Japan was 9.83 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.5%; the import from Japan was 1.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 8%. Among the main export products, onions and shallots (070310), mung beans (071331), and starch residues (230310) are immediately zero-reduced products, and the export volume increased by 15.7%, 16.2%, and 17.2% respectively.
(3) Closer economic and trade exchanges with ASEAN members. On the basis of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, RCEP further expands and opens up, the degree of trade facilitation has been significantly improved, and the bilateral agricultural trade exchanges have been promoted closer. From January to November, the trade volume of agricultural products between China and ASEAN was 55.78 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. imports from ASEAN were US$33.97 billion, an increase of 19.7%, of which imports from Laos and Myanmar increased by 1 times and 1.3 times respectively. Exports to ASEAN were US$21.81 billion, an increase of 13.2%, of which exports to Singapore and Malaysia increased by 29.5% and 30% respectively.
(4) Exports to New Zealand, Australia, and South Korea increased significantly. China has signed free trade agreements with New Zealand, Australia and South Korea. The increase in the opening up and facilitation of the agricultural product market under RCEP has had a strong stimulating effect on trade. China’s exports of agricultural products to South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have grown rapidly, with year-on-year increases of 19.3%, 36.6% and 42.9% respectively from January to November. imports from Australia grew rapidly, up 24.8%; imports from South Korea and New Zealand increased by 0.6% and 5.3% respectively.
From the perspective of China's product structure, grains, livestock products, vegetable oil, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables are the main trade categories
(1) Grain imports increased significantly, accounting for 19.6% of China's total grain imports. From January to November, China imported 9.819 million tons of grain from the RCEP region, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%.
(2) The "increment and decrease" of imports of livestock products accounted for 33.3% of China's total imports of livestock products. From January to November, China's imports of livestock products from RCEP areas were US$15.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the import of dairy products was 1.493 million tons, down 12.2%, 83.2% came from New Zealand, and 15.8% came from Australia; the import of beef was 372,000 tons, an increase of 12.8%, and Australia and New Zealand accounted for 45.4% and 54.6% respectively; the import of mutton was 317,000 tons, Australia and New Zealand accounted for 43% and 57% respectively.
(3) The import of palm oil has dropped significantly, almost all of which come from the RCEP area. Palm oil is China's largest import of agricultural products from the RCEP region. From January to November, the import volume was 4.398 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%; the import value was 5.32 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.7%. imports mainly come from Malaysia and Indonesia, of which imports from Malaysia fell by 4%. In the second half of the year, Indonesian palm oil started to destock, which led to a rebound in China's imports from Indonesia, and the decline shrank from 75.5% in the first half to 31.4%.
(4) The export of aquatic products increased by 11%, accounting for 50.3% of China's total export of aquatic products. From January to November, China exported 10.53 billion US dollars of aquatic products to the RCEP region, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, which was 5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of global aquatic product exports during the same period. Malaysia, Brunei, Myanmar, etc. had a relatively large increase, with a year-on-year increase of 28%, 29.9%, and 1.1 times, respectively. The main export categories are cuttlefish and squid, eel, tuna, etc. Among them, the export of cuttlefish and squid was 3.06 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.2%, accounting for 29% of the total export of aquatic products to the region.
(5) Vegetable exports increased by 12%, accounting for 52.7% of China's total vegetable exports. From January to November, China exported 8.31 billion US dollars of vegetables to the RCEP region, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, slightly higher than the growth rate of global vegetable exports during the same period. Exports to Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar increased by 17.1%, 23% and 3.3 times respectively. Onions, canned tomato paste, canned mushrooms, potatoes, vegetable juice, etc. saw a relatively large increase in export value, which increased by 25.9%, 31.7%, 84.2%, 1.2 times, and 3.1 times, respectively.
(6) The fruit trade deficit expanded, with exports accounting for 59% of China's total fruit exports and imports accounting for 67.5% of China's total fruit imports. From January to November, China's fruit exports to the RCEP region were US$3.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%; imports were US$9.68 billion, an increase of 1.1%; the deficit was US$6.07 billion, an increase of 16%. Fruit exports to Japan, Australia, South Korea, and New Zealand bucked the trend and increased by 7.6%, 8.7%, 15%, and 36.4%, respectively. The export value of canned peaches and canned citrus grew rapidly, increasing by 21.3% and 24.3% respectively; the import of pineapples, coconuts and apples increased significantly, increasing by 25.6%, 32.6% and 41.3% respectively.
From the perspective of China's provinces, the central and eastern regions have achieved remarkable results in docking RCEP
(1) The central region is effectively connected with the implementation of RCEP, and the exports of inland provinces are growing rapidly. Driven by the publicity effect in the first year of RCEP's entry into force, all provinces have paid close attention to the docking of enjoying dividends, which has greatly benefited the trade development of inland provinces in the central region with good agricultural endowments but insufficient trade conditions. From January to November, the export value of agricultural products in the central region was 4.18 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year, of which Jiangxi and Henan increased by 33.7% and 44.6% respectively, mainly driven by the substantial increase in exports to Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.
(2) The trade of agricultural products in eastern and other coastal provinces grew rapidly, and Guangdong's performance was more prominent. From the perspective of the eastern region as a whole, the export value of agricultural products from the eastern region to the RCEP region was US$27.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, which was 5.8 percentage points lower than that of the central region. The trade of major exporting provinces achieved growth, and the export volume of Shandong, Zhejiang, and Fujian to the RCEP region increased by 8.5%, 17.6%, and 18.7% respectively. Guangdong took the lead in docking and achieved remarkable results, with a relatively large increase in exports. Guangdong Port newly opened 11 RCEP routes, driving the province's exports to the RCEP region to increase by 48.1%, of which exports to Australia and Malaysia increased by 95.1% and doubled, respectively.
(3) Exports in Northeast China grew steadily, while exports in Western China declined as a whole. The exports of agricultural products from the three northeastern provinces to the RCEP region amounted to US$2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, exports to major markets Japan and South Korea increased by 0.9% and 11.1% respectively. The overall export of agricultural products from the western region to the RCEP region was 4.54 billion US dollars, a decrease of 11.8%. Yunnan and Guangxi are the main export provinces in the west, accounting for more than 70% of the total export value to the RCEP region; among them, the export value of Yunnan was 1.75 billion US dollars, a decrease of 38.6%, and the decline in exports was mainly affected by the epidemic prevention and control situation; Guangxi's export value was 1.44 billion US dollars , an increase of 15.4%, and fruit exports to the RCEP region increased by 6.1 times.
From the perspective of future trends, RCEP regional agricultural trade will continue to grow
(1) The continuous release of RCEP policy dividends will promote the development of agricultural product trade among members in the region to a greater extent. RCEP has introduced more efficient and transparent rules on non-tariff barriers such as customs procedures and trade facilitation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical regulations and conformity assessment procedures. For example, all members must provide perishable products such as seafood, fruits and vegetables for 6 hours The convenience of customs clearance will continue to promote the development of agricultural product trade in the region.
(2) Regional rules of origin accumulation will benefit the development of agricultural product processing trade of all members. RCEP stipulates that the origin value components of products can be accumulated in a region composed of 15 members, which is especially beneficial to enterprises that need to import raw materials for reprocessing and export. From the perspective of the first 11 months of 2022, the export value of China's agricultural product processing trade was 8.66 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year, of which Guangdong and Shandong increased by 17.9% and 69.8% respectively. In the future, the processing trade of Vietnam and other members with more labor advantages may increase significantly.
(3) New trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce of agricultural products will usher in new opportunities for development. The e-commerce chapter in RCEP reached a consensus for the first time on issues such as cross-border information transmission and data localization, providing institutional guarantee for intra-regional e-commerce cooperation. At present, China and ASEAN are actively promoting the docking of RCEP cross-border e-commerce industry associations, and the China-Laos Railway is exploring development models such as "Lanmei Express + cross-border e-commerce". It is expected that new formats and new models such as cross-border e-commerce will Further expand the development space of agricultural trade in the region.
(4) China's export of agricultural products to Japan will continue to grow. As far as China is concerned, with the implementation of Japan's tax reduction table year by year, most of the promised products will be reduced to zero within 16 years, and the export of advantageous agricultural products such as garlic powder, clams, octopus, leeks, ginger, and nectarines to Japan will increase. . After the tax reduction is completed in 2037, about 50% of Japan's agricultural products imported from China will enjoy zero-tariff benefits.
(Source: Agricultural Trade Promotion Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)
